Making Solar “Policy-Proof”: Why CRE Can’t Wait for Perfect Incentives

As subsidies wobble and rates stay volatile, the smartest landlords are designing rooftop solar that pencils out even if the politics change.

Solar is booming—even as policy gets messy

If you zoom out to the global level, solar is still on a tear. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that solar PV generation grew by a record 320 TWh in 2023—up 25% from 2022—and now accounts for about 5.4% of global electricity generation. Other analyses drawing on IEA data put solar at roughly 2,120 TWh in 2024, or about 8.3% of global generation, underscoring just how fast the technology is scaling.

Hardware supply is no longer the constraint. In its Renewables 2024 market report, the IEA projects that global solar PV manufacturing capacity will exceed 1,100 GW by the end of 2024—more than double projected PV demand—driving module prices to record lows and compressing manufacturer margins.

What is changing is the policy backdrop. In October 2025, the IEA trimmed its global forecast for renewable capacity growth by about 248 GW through 2030 compared with its previous outlook, citing weakened prospects in the U.S. and China. The downgrade is linked to earlier phase-outs of some U.S. federal tax incentives and China’s shift from fixed feed-in tariffs to competitive auctions, which erode project economics.

For commercial and campus owners, that creates a paradox: Solar has never been cheaper or more technically mature, and the long-term need for clean, predictable on-site power has never been higher, but relying on any single incentive or target now looks risky.

That’s the problem Aurora Solar co-founder Chris Hopper tackles in his recent CleanTechnica article, arguing that the industry must “make solar easier to understand, faster to deploy, and less expensive to install”—in short, “policy-proof.”

What “policy-proof” actually means for building owners

In Hopper’s framing, policy-proof solar isn’t about ignoring incentives; it’s about designing projects that still make sense if those incentives shift or fade. That resonates strongly with what DOE and market analysts have been telling commercial owners for years.

On the technical and financial side, “policy-proof” typically means:

• Soft costs are under control. CleanTechnica’s piece and Aurora’s own materials point out that permitting, engineering, sales and overhead can still make up well over half of total project cost, especially in small commercial and multifamily. DOE and NREL studies have made similar findings for U.S. markets, with soft costs dominating in many rooftop segments. Digital design and permitting tools can cut proposal and design time by an order of magnitude, reducing change orders and tightening paybacks even before incentives.

• The project pencils on tariffs and avoided costs alone. DOE’s Better Buildings “Onsite Solar and Building Valuation” guidance emphasizes tariff analysis, demand-charge reduction and load matching as the core of the business case for C&I projects—treating tax credits as upside, not the only reason a project works.

• Contracts align with future flexibility. As module prices fall and storage costs decline, Better Buildings case studies and industry guidance increasingly highlight PPAs and ownership structures that leave room to add batteries or EV-linked load later, rather than locking into assumptions about static tariffs and load profiles.

For CRE, healthcare and campuses, that’s not an abstract concept. It’s a way of saying: build solar because it strengthens your P&L and resilience, not because a specific line in the tax code happens to be favorable this year.

Case studies: solar that stands on its own two feet

The DOE’s Better Buildings Solution Center is full of examples where owners made rooftop solar work on leased and mixed-tenant buildings long before the current policy cycle.

• The Tower Companies (office, Washington, D.C. region).
  A Better Buildings case study on The Tower Companies’ Blair Office Building details how the landlord began investing in onsite PV in 2014 and has since expanded, capturing energy savings while increasing asset value and using solar as a stakeholder engagement tool with tenants. The analysis emphasizes that valuation benefits and reduced operating expenses—not just federal credits—drive the economics.

• WashREIT (multifamily portfolio).
  A separate Better Buildings case profile of WashREIT (now Elme Communities) documents 565 kW of onsite solar across multifamily assets, structured around roughly a five-year simple payback by targeting common-area loads and high-consumption buildings. The projects leveraged incentives where available but were underwritten primarily on avoided utility costs, improved NOI and asset competitiveness.

Broader reviews from REN21 and NREL echo the same themes across dozens of C&I projects: the biggest barriers are process, stakeholder education and transaction costs, not technology performance.

Put differently, owners who treat solar as a core part of their operating model—like HVAC or roofing—are already making it work, even in imperfect policy environments.

Designing solar to survive the next policy swing

For owners and property managers, there are a few practical takeaways from the “policy-proof” discussion:

1. Underwrite against your tariff and demand charges first.
   Start with what you pay today and what you’re likely to pay under plausible futures. DOE’s commercial solar and valuation guides show how to structure analyses around utility tariffs, demand charges and load profiles, then layer incentives on top as upside.

2. Standardize your playbook across the portfolio.
   Aurora’s thesis—and the experience of large owners in Better Buildings case studies—is that repeatable design and contracting processes can significantly lower soft costs and risk. That’s how you get from “one fun pilot” to dozens of rooftops that all clear your return hurdles.

3. Think in systems, not silos.
   When you combine solar with batteries, EV charging and better controls, you multiply the ways a project makes money: peak shaving, backup power, demand-response revenues and improved tenant experience. IEA and REN21 analyses show that as electrification and data-center loads grow, grid volatility and peak pricing are likely to increase, rewarding sites that can flex their demand.

4. Expect policy noise—and don’t let it paralyze you.
   The IEA’s downgraded forecast is a warning about relying too heavily on a single incentive, not a verdict on solar’s viability. With global module overcapacity pushing prices down and long-term decarbonization commitments still in place, the underlying rationale for onsite solar at well-chosen buildings remains strong.

For ChargedUp!’s audience—owners, investors and campus leaders—the bottom line is straightforward: You can’t control what happens in Washington or Brussels next year. You can control how quickly you turn cheap, abundant solar hardware into site-level projects that stand on their own economics—and how well you integrate them into a broader strategy for resilience, electrification and NOI.

That’s what “policy-proof” really means.