Data centers now dominate 73% of ERCOT’s massive large-load line. For developers and owners, the message is clear: Build your own resilience or get stuck in line.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) dropped a number this month that reads less like a utility forecast and more like a fever dream: 226 gigawatts (GW).

That is the total capacity of "large-load" interconnection requests sitting in the state’s queue as of mid-November 2025—a figure that has nearly quadrupled from 63 GW just one year ago. To put that in perspective, 226 GW is roughly double the current record for peak demand across the entire ERCOT system.

This surge isn't coming from new subdivisions or shopping malls. According to ERCOT’s latest system planning update, roughly 73% of these requests are tied to data centers, specifically the energy-hungry campuses powering the artificial intelligence boom.

For commercial real estate (CRE) owners, developers, and urban planners in the Sun Belt, this "land rush" signals a permanent shift in the market. The era of cheap, unlimited grid power is pausing for a reality check. The only way to guarantee speed-to-market and cost certainty now is to bring your own power infrastructure—specifically microgrids, on-site storage, and virtual power plant (VPP) capabilities—inside the fence line.

The “Phantom” Load vs. The Hard Reality

Grid analysts often dismiss parts of this massive queue as "phantom load"—speculative applications filed by developers hedging their bets across multiple sites. While true, focusing on the speculation misses the point. Even if only a fraction of this load materializes, it threatens to overwhelm a grid that has added only about 23 GW of new generation in the last two years.

The bottleneck is severe enough that ERCOT has called for backup. In a press release last week, the grid operator announced it has contracted McKinsey & Company to overhaul the large-load interconnection process.

“As we work to address current and future Large Loads connecting to the ERCOT grid, we want to provide the best solution to serve this growing area while also protecting the reliability of the grid,” said Woody Rickerson, ERCOT’s Chief Operating Officer. “McKinsey’s experience in complex program management will help facilitate this important work.”

The goal is to develop a framework by early 2026 that filters out speculative projects and prioritizes credible loads. For developers, this means the "wild west" phase of interconnection is ending. Future approvals will likely require higher security deposits, firmer financial commitments, and proof of site control.

The New CRE Playbook: Monetizing the "Grid Crunch"

For property owners in Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio, this constraint creates a competitive moat for those who act early.

Tenants in the AI and hyperscale sector are paying premiums for speed and reliability. A standard warehouse roof is just coverage; a roof with 5 MW of solar and a battery storage system is a hedge against double-digit rate hikes. Ratepayers could see upgrade bills spike 15-20% by 2030 to fund the transmission needed for these mega-projects, making on-site generation a critical defensive play.

The math for proactive owners is compelling. Consider a 100 MW industrial campus that integrates 30 MW of battery storage. By shaving its peak demand during ERCOT’s "4CP" (Four Coincident Peaks) intervals, that site could offset more than $2 million in annual demand charges. Simultaneously, those batteries can bid into ERCOT’s ancillary services markets, turning a cost center into a revenue stream.

Smart owners are already embedding VPP-ready clauses in their leases. These structures allow landlords and tenants to share the benefits of dispatching on-site power during grid emergencies—capturing 10-15% rent premiums from mission-critical tenants who view reliability as non-negotiable.

A Zoning Mandate for Urban Planners

For city planners, the 226 GW number is a warning flare. If every data center request in the queue were built as a standalone load, the cost burden on residential and small commercial ratepayers would be unsustainable.

The solution is hybrid zoning. Municipalities should move to mandate that large industrial and data center developments generate a portion of their own power—potentially requiring 20% on-site generation for new industrial parks. This prevents infrastructure bubbles and ensures that the economic benefits of the AI boom don't come at the expense of local grid stability.

Texas is already attempting to incentivize this supply-side buildout through the Texas Energy Fund, a $9 billion program offering low-interest loans for new dispatchable generation. However, the rollout has been rocky, with at least eight proposed projects withdrawing due to supply chain delays and permitting issues. This leaves the door wide open for private, distributed solutions—edge microgrids that can be deployed faster than large-scale gas plants.

Conclusion: Delay Risks Stranded Assets

The 226 GW queue is not just a statistic; it is a signal that the traditional utility model cannot keep pace with the AI revolution.

For developers, the "wait and see" approach is now a liability. With 225 new large-load requests filed in 2025 alone, the line is only getting longer. The winners in this cycle will be the ones who start RFPs for edge microgrids today, ensuring their assets remain viable—and valuable—regardless of how long the utility queue becomes.

References and Further Reading:

1. Latitude Media, "ERCOT's large load queue has nearly quadrupled in a single year" (Dec. 3, 2025) — https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/ercots-large-load-queue-has-nearly-quadrupled-in-a-single-year/

2. Mercom India, "Texas Grid Hit by Massive Data Center Demand Wave, ERCOT Warns" (Dec. 9, 2025) — https://www.mercomindia.com/texas-grid-hit-by-massive-data-center-demand-wave-ercot-warns

3. Bitcoin.com / The Miner Mag, "AI Boom Floods Texas Grid With 164 GW of Power Requests" (Dec. 12, 2025) — https://news.bitcoin.com/miner-weekly-ai-boom-floods-texas-grid-with-164-gw-of-power-requests/

4. Blockspace Media, "Bitcoin mining news: ERCOT queue up 270%, IREN raises $2.3B" (Dec. 13, 2025) — https://blockspace.media/insight/bitcoin-mining-news-ercot-queue-up-270-iren-raises-2-3b-whatsminer-m70-launches/

5. TradingView / Cointelegraph, "Texas grid is heating up again, this time from AI, not Bitcoin miners" (Dec. 11, 2025) — https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:88d716acd094b:0-texas-grid-is-heating-up-again-this-time-from-ai-not-bitcoin-miners/

6. ERCOT, "ERCOT Announces Strategic Organizational Changes to Support Grid Reliability" (Dec. 12, 2025) — https://www.ercot.com/news/release/12122025-ercot-announces-strategic

7. Ascend Analytics, "How the Data Center Boom Brought Down the Texas Energy Fund" (Nov. 12, 2025) — https://www.ascendanalytics.com/blog/how-the-data-center-boom-brought-down-the-texas-energy-fund

8. Stanwich Energy, "Texas Capacity Withdrawals Signal Growing Reliability and Price Risk for ERCOT Buyers" (Apr. 4, 2025) — https://stanwichenergy.com/insights/texas-capacity-withdrawals-signal-growing-reliability-and-price-risk-for-ercot-buyers