The Lease Return Wave: 300,000 Off-Lease EVs Hit the Used Market and Reset Multifamily Charging Underwriting
Used EV pricing has reached near-parity with used internal combustion vehicles. The 2026 lease return cohort is the largest in U.S. history. The financial logic for charging infrastructure at multifamily, workplace, and retail properties has changed.
By Keith Reynolds | Publisher & Editor, ChargedUp!
CDK Global projects more than 300,000 electric vehicles will return from lease in 2026, more than triple the 123,000 units projected for 2025, with J.D. Power placing the figure as high as 330,000. [1] The lease return wave coincides with Cox Automotive Q1 2026 data showing used EVs averaging $34,821 versus $33,487 for used internal combustion vehicles, a gap of $1,300 that has narrowed from over $10,000 as recently as 2023. Used EV sales reached 93,500 units in Q1 2026, up 12 percent year-over-year and 17 percent from Q4 2025. [2]
For commercial real estate owners, the convergence of these two trends changes the underwriting question on EV charging infrastructure. The decision is no longer whether new EV adoption rates will support the cost of installation; it is whether existing tenants with used EVs will require Level 2 charging to renew. Multifamily, workplace, and retail properties that have treated EV charging as a future amenity question now face it as a present occupancy question.
How the Cohort Is Structured
Most of the 2026 returning vehicles will be two- to three-year-old models from 2022 and 2023 with about 25,000 miles, many still carrying factory warranties including federally mandated battery coverage of eight years or 100,000 miles. The leasing wave that produced this cohort was driven in part by provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act that allowed leased EVs, classified as commercial vehicles, to qualify for the full $7,500 federal tax credit regardless of domestic sourcing requirements. That structure pushed lease share of total franchise EV volume to roughly 46 percent in 2023 and held above 30 percent through the first nine months of 2024. [3]
The September 30, 2025 expiration of the $7,500 federal clean vehicle tax credit as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act fundamentally altered new EV economics overnight. New EV sales fell 24 percent in October 2025 compared to September. Cox Automotive Q1 2026 data shows total new EV sales at 216,399 units, down 27 percent year-over-year, with EV market share at 5.8 percent. Tesla, the largest U.S. EV seller, moved approximately 122,196 units in Q1 — down 4.6 percent year-over-year but holding 3.3 percent of the total new vehicle market. [4]
The pricing dynamics are also shifting on the dealer side. Leases written in 2022 and 2023 assumed residual values near 50 percent, while current market estimates place actual residuals closer to 35 to 40 percent. That gap is pushing more off-lease vehicles to auction, creating buying opportunities for retailers. Average used EV list prices held near $37,000 in 2025, with nearly one-third of listings priced below $25,000. By February 2026, 44 percent of used EV transactions closed below $25,000.
Why the Demographic Implications Matter for CRE
Near-parity used EV pricing moves the relevant buyer demographic. The buyer of a 2023 Tesla Model 3 or Hyundai IONIQ 5 returning from lease at $25,000 to $30,000 is no longer the early-adopter homeowner with garage charging. Increasingly, the buyer is a renter, a multifamily tenant, or a worker without dedicated overnight charging access. That demographic shift is the structural reason why charging infrastructure at multifamily, workplace, and retail properties is moving from amenity to requirement faster than new vehicle adoption rates would suggest.
Used EV days supply sits at 42, just four days higher than 38 days for combustion vehicles, indicating genuine consumer demand rather than a supply glut. Cox Automotive's lease maturity data shows EV and PHEV lease returns ramping through 2026 and into 2028, with monthly lease return volumes expected to climb to 240,000 total units, roughly 20 percent of which (or nearly 50,000 per month) will be electric. There are now roughly 5.8 million EVs on U.S. roads, and U.S. public charging sessions hit 141 million in 2025, up 30 percent year-over-year. [5]
The public charging picture is also reshaping. Tesla's Q1 2026 financial report disclosed 53 million Supercharging sessions, up 26 percent year-over-year, with 1.8 terawatt-hours of network throughput. The company closed Q1 at 8,463 stations and 79,918 connectors globally, with U.S. stations crossing 3,000. Stellantis began enabling Jeep and Dodge access to the Supercharger network in early 2026, joining Volkswagen, Ford, GM, and other major automakers in the NACS transition. According to Alternative Fuels Data Center data, the U.S. added nearly 3,500 public DC fast-charging ports in Q1 2026 across all connector types, with NACS deployment from non-Tesla networks approaching parity with Tesla's own installations. [6]
Operational Implications for Property Owners
The shift in used EV demographics translates into three operational decisions for owners. First, multifamily properties in markets with significant used EV inventory, such as California, New York, Texas, and Florida, should evaluate Level 2 charging retrofit timelines against tenant turnover cycles. The Section 30C alternative fuel vehicle refueling property credit, which covers 30 percent of installation cost up to $100,000 per location, expires for construction starts after June 30, 2026, creating a 62-day window from publication to lock equipment, electrical contractor commitments, and utility coordination.
Second, workplace and retail properties with surface parking should assess shared-infrastructure economics. The EV Realty multi-fleet truck charging hub that opened in San Bernardino on April 9 with 76 ports, 9 megawatts of capacity, and both CCS and Megawatt Charging System support is the freight-side analog of the model. For retail and workplace, the equivalent question is whether hosting 4-to-12 Level 2 ports paid for through tenant utilities, lease premiums, or revenue-share agreements with charging network operators makes more sense than treating charging as an unfunded amenity.
Third, properties with significant rental fleet exposure, including long-term residential rentals, corporate housing, and vehicle-as-a-service operations, should expect the used EV pricing curve to drive faster fleet electrification than new vehicle adoption rates suggest. Uber and Lyft drivers increasingly need high-speed chargers in convenient locations, and EVgo CEO Badar Khan has identified rideshare driver demand as a meaningful share of EVgo's growth. Properties hosting rideshare driver activity, last-mile delivery operations, or short-term rental fleets should treat charging as part of the property's operational infrastructure rather than as a tenant amenity. [7]
The structural takeaway is that charging infrastructure underwriting is no longer a forward bet on new EV adoption. It has become a present-tense response to an existing 5.8 million-vehicle installed base that is about to be augmented by the largest off-lease cohort in U.S. history at prices that put used EVs in reach of the rental and entry-level buyer demographic. The June 30 deadline for the most relevant federal tax credit makes the timing question concrete. Owners working the math against 2024 assumptions are using the wrong baseline. [8]
References
[1] CBT News: Dealers brace for influx of off-lease EVs in 2026, CDK reports (January 26, 2026) — https://www.cbtnews.com/dealers-brace-for-influx-of-lease-evs-in-2026/
[2] Electrek: New EV sales drop 28% in Q1 2026, but used EVs surge 12% to near-record levels (March 27, 2026) — https://electrek.co/2026/03/27/used-ev-sales-boom-new-ev-sales-drop-28-percent-q1-2026/
[3] Autobody News: Returning EV Lease Volume Set to Spike 230% by 2026 (J.D. Power data) — https://www.autobodynews.com/news/returning-ev-lease-volume-set-to-spike-230-by-2026
[4] Cox Automotive Q1 2026 EV Sales Report Commentary — https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights/q1-2026-ev-sales-report-commentary/
[5] Recurrent Auto: Used Electric Car Prices and Market Report — Q1 2026 — https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/used-electric-vehicle-buying-report
[6] EV Charging Stations: Tesla Supercharging Q1 2026 — Sessions Increased 26% to 53 Million — https://evchargingstations.com/chargingnews/tesla-supercharging-q1-2026-2/
[7] Axios: Tesla, EV public charging growth defies industry slowdown (February 4, 2026) — https://www.axios.com/2026/02/04/tesla-supercharger-ev-public-charging
[8] EVXL: Massive EV Lease Returns In 2026 Could Trigger Used EV Price War (November 17, 2025) — https://evxl.co/2025/11/17/massive-ev-lease-returns-in-2026-used-ev-price-war/
[9] IRS Section 30C Alternative Fuel Vehicle Refueling Property Credit guidance — https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/businesses/alternative-fuel-vehicle-refueling-property-credit
